According to NASA research scientists, an asteroid has a 1-in-75 chance of hitting the planet Mars on January 30, 2008.

Researchers with the NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Near-Earth Object Program, located in La Canada Flintridge, California, have reported to United Press International journalists that Asteroid 2007 WD5 has a likely chance of hitting Earth’s neighbor Mars.

In fact, U.S. astronomer Steve Chesley stated in the UPI article (December 21, 2007) that the 1-in-75 chance is “wildly unusual” because "We're used to dealing with odds like one-in-a-million. with a one-in-a-hundred chance makes us sit up straight in our chairs." [UPI article “1-in-75 chance of asteroid hitting Mars"]

Asteroid 2007 WD5 is about 160 feet (50 meters) in diameter. If the asteroid does hit Mars it will most likely survive the crash through its atmosphere and leave a large crater on its surface. The crater could reach up to 0.5 mile (0.8 kilometer) across.

The asteroid was discovered just recently, in fact, late in November 2007. Astronomers have been tracking its path since then. It is currently located between the solar orbits of Earth and Mars. In November, the odds of it hitting Mars was at 1-in-350, but the odds increased late in December to 1-in-75 after new tracking data came in.

Better estimates will become available as we wait to see its fate on January 30, 2008. Data is unavailable until 2007 WD5 comes out from behind the Moon, which is expected in a couple of weeks.

If the asteroid does hit the surface of Mars it is now estimated that it would hit near the Martian equator. In fact, astronomers estimate it would hit near to the Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity. The little rover, luckily, is outside of the asteroid’s “impact zone.”

Opportunity is currently located inside Victoria Crater on the surface of Mar, which is about 4 miles (7 kilometers) from where it originally landed.

NASA scientists are currently investigating the possibility of the Opportunity and Spirit rovers taking images of the asteroid. Three spacecraft are also orbiting about Mars. The three spacecraft are Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, Mars Global Surveyor, and Mars Odyssey.

Large telescopes on Earth could easily see the plume of dust that results if the asteroid impacts the Martian surface.

The asteroid is traveling at about 8 miles (13 kilometers) per second. At that time, it would leave a hole similar in size to Meteor Crater in Arizona, which is about 4,000 feet (1,200 meters) in diameter and about 570 feet (170 meters) deep.

So, what do you think? Will it hit or not?

If the asteroid does impact Mars, it would be a huge scientific addition to scientists studying meteors and their physical characteristics, along with how surfaces like Mars, the Moon, and the Earth were bomboarded with such celestial bodies early in their lives.

Astronomers have never directly observed an asteroid hitting a planet before. It is pretty exciting to the astronomy world.